Years ago there was a millionaire who was getting old. He decided he wanted to provide for his heirs, but he wanted to protect them from poor investments that would make them lose the fortune he had built up. He had his lawyer draft his will in a way that would provide for his heirs, but only allow his money to be invested in a reliable, solid industry. The industry he chose was electric street cars. Within a generation, his descendants were pumping gasoline at service stations.
The millionaire had good intentions, but he was short-sighted. His basic failure was that he didn’t expect change. He correctly assumed that people would always need cheap transportation. He incorrectly assumed that electric street cars would be around forever.
While much less dramatic than the millionaire example, most people have some story about loss that could have been prevented by expecting change. In planning for the future, make sure you don’t fall into a trap of assuming that the way things were last year are an indication of the way things will be next.
Originally published on August 21, 2008.
How about when Sony released the Minidisc, which didn’t last long when MP3s came on the scene.
Minidisc was a relatively popular format in Asia, specifically Japan, and Europe. Minidisc wasn’t a mistake, but maybe it was a mistake to bring it to US markets.
When my grandfather died in 1970, he left my father an extensive stock portfolio. My father, a brilliant teacher and a total clueless newbie about managing money, thought he’d be ahead of the game if he sold off some stock in a company he’d never heard of.
Texas Instruments. Right before the personal calculator took off.
Good example.
I think the MiniDisc format didn’t live up to expectations because Sony tried to control it too tightly. There were many people who still needed MiniDisc type capabilities, but more from the recording aspect, but Sony made it hard to get your data back off the device. They seem to be doing something similar with Blue Ray. They want it to take off, but places like Apple are staying away from it because of the licensing.
Even for people who really want to buy BlueRay disks, it is hard to understand why they cost $10 to $20 more than a regular DVD.
As Anthony Robbins says in his book Awaken the Giant Within, in the chapter about making money:
“The value of anything is purely dependent on technology”
As Anthony Robbins says in his book Awaken the Giant Within, in the chapter about making money:
“The value of anything is purely dependent upon technology”
@Jim,
The Example of minidisc is an apt one. I have a rarely used minidisc player (and several blank minidiscs lying at my home somewhere)
Sad (for many of the minidisc owners like myself) but True none the less.
In terms of evolution, the most successful species isn’t the biggest, fastest or strongest, it’s the one that adapts best to change.